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Will the US and Russia reach a new missile treaty by the end of 2026?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes, before deployment • 25%
Yes, after deployment • 25%
No, but negotiations ongoing • 25%
No, no negotiations • 25%
Official announcements from the US and Russian governments or verified reports from international diplomatic agencies
Story
Putin Warns US of Cold War Crisis Over 2026 Missile Deployment in Germany
Jul 28, 2024, 12:00 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stern warning to the United States regarding its plans to deploy long-range missiles in Germany by 2026. Speaking at the Navy Day celebrations in St. Petersburg, Putin stated that if Washington proceeds with the deployment, Russia will consider itself released from its self-imposed moratorium on deploying intermediate and shorter-range missiles. He emphasized that Russia would station similar missiles within striking distance of the West, potentially relaunching the production of intermediate-range nuclear weapons and equipping its fleet with hypersonic missiles. The Russian leader highlighted that important Russian facilities would be within reach of US missiles in Germany, with a flight time of about 10 minutes. This development has raised concerns about a potential new Cold War-style missile crisis.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved Relations • 25%
No Change • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant progress • 25%
Agreement on missile limitations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Talks lead to de-escalation • 25%
Talks lead to increased tensions • 25%
Talks result in new sanctions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%