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Will the U.S. and Russia engage in direct negotiations over missile deployments by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from U.S. or Russian governments regarding negotiations
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Russia to Abandon Intermediate- and Short-Range Nuclear-Capable Missile Moratorium, Lavrov Warns of Decisive Response
Dec 29, 2024, 11:27 AM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Russia will abandon its unilateral moratorium on the deployment of intermediate- and short-range nuclear-capable missiles. This decision, made in response to the United States' deployment of similar weapons, indicates a significant shift in Russia's military posture. Lavrov stated that the current moratorium is 'practically nonviable' and must be lifted, emphasizing that Russia will take decisive action against any new missile threats from the U.S. and NATO. He warned that if the U.S. continues its provocative actions, Russia will respond with military-technical countermeasures. This development marks a potential escalation in tensions between Russia and Western nations, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
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Other • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Agreement Reached • 25%
Escalated Tensions • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Postponed Discussions • 25%
Talks result in new sanctions • 25%
Talks lead to de-escalation • 25%
Talks lead to increased tensions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Agreement on missile limitations • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
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No New Agreements • 25%
Renewal of INF Treaty • 25%
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No • 50%
