NOAA's final ACE report for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA Predicts Extremely Active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season with 17-25 Named Storms

May 23, 2024, 02:35 PM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, predicting an extraordinarily active season. NOAA forecasts 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This is the highest number of storms ever predicted in a May outlook by NOAA. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is expected to be influenced by factors such as near-record warm ocean temperatures, the development of La Niña conditions, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad commented, 'This season is looking to be an extraordinary one.' Forecasters estimate an 85% chance of an above-normal season, with only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. The average hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is forecasted to be 150%-245% of normal, marking the second highest May forecast ever issued by NOAA.