Post-season report from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

NOAA Predicts Exceptionally Active 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season with 17-25 Named Storms

May 23, 2024, 02:18 PM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook, predicting an exceptionally active season. The forecast calls for 17 to 25 named storms, of which 8 to 13 could become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This is the most aggressive pre-hurricane season outlook NOAA has issued since it began such forecasts in 1999. Factors contributing to this forecast include near-record warm ocean temperatures, the development of La Niña, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. NOAA forecasters estimate an 85% chance of an above-normal season, significantly higher than the average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is forecasted to be 150% to 245% of normal. NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad commented, "This season is looking to be an extraordinary one." The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.