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Market
Will Russia maintain de facto control over current Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international organizations or credible news outlets
Story
Putin to Demand Ukraine's NATO Exclusion, Neutrality, and Limited Army in Talks with Trump: Bloomberg
Jan 15, 2025, 06:00 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to demand that Ukraine never joins NATO and becomes a neutral state with a limited army in any upcoming negotiations with incoming US President Donald Trump, according to Bloomberg sources. Putin's conditions also include a drastic reduction of Ukraine's military ties with the NATO alliance. Russia is expected to insist that while NATO countries may continue to supply weapons to Ukraine, these should not be used against Russia or to recapture territories. The Kremlin aims to maintain at least de facto control over the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory it currently holds, including Crimea, though it is open to some territorial swaps.
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Similar markets
Other • 25%
Contested • 25%
Russia • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Russia maintains majority control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no majority control • 25%
Ukraine regains majority control • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%
Territory changes hands multiple times • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ukraine gains territory • 25%
Recognizes other authority • 25%
Recognizes Ukrainian parliament • 25%
No change • 25%
Recognizes Zelenskiy • 25%
Peace agreement with security guarantees • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement without security guarantees • 25%
