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Market
Who will have majority control of captured territories in Ukraine by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia maintains majority control • 25%
Ukraine regains majority control • 25%
Stalemate with no majority control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from UK Defence Intelligence or other credible international defense sources
Story
UK Confirms Russia's Rapid Advances Near Velika Novosilka, Capturing 1600 km2 in Ukraine
Dec 1, 2024, 03:40 PM
The United Kingdom's Defence Intelligence has confirmed that Russia has made "rapid advances" towards Velika Novosilka, a key area for Ukraine's eastern defense. This development follows Ukraine's loss of Vuhledar in October, which has reportedly led to continued territorial losses. Between September 1 and November 30, Russian forces captured over 1,600 square kilometers in Ukraine and regained approximately 500 square kilometers in Kursk. The rate of Russian advances has accelerated monthly, despite heavy losses on their side.
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Similar markets
Contested • 25%
Russia • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Contested • 25%
Controlled by Ukraine • 25%
Controlled by Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ukraine gains territory • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%
Territory changes hands multiple times • 25%
Crimea and Donetsk • 25%
Crimea only • 25%
Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk • 25%
Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia • 25%
Military victory for Russia • 25%
Military victory for Ukraine • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
