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Will Russia establish formal diplomatic relations with the Taliban by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or recognized international diplomatic channels
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On December 17, 2024, Russia's State Duma Approves Law in Second and Third Readings to Remove Taliban from Terrorist List
Dec 17, 2024, 12:39 PM
On December 17, 2024, the Russian State Duma approved a law that allows for the removal of the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations. This legislation was passed in both the second and third readings, following its initial approval a week earlier. The new law introduces a mechanism for temporarily excluding groups from the terrorist list if they cease promoting terrorism. While this move does not formally recognize the Taliban government, it indicates a potential shift in Russia's approach towards the group, which has been expanding its relations with Moscow since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. The decision may also pave the way for normalization of relations with the Taliban and possibly with the new rulers of Syria.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal recognition of Taliban • 25%
Conditional recognition • 25%
Continued non-recognition • 25%
Other diplomatic approach • 25%
Weakened ties • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened ties • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Deterioration of relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Low engagement • 25%
Moderate engagement • 25%
No engagement • 25%
High engagement • 25%
General acceptance • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
