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What will be Russia's policy towards the Taliban by the end of 2025?
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Vladimir Putin•Taliban•Afghanistan•State Duma•Kabul•Russian Foreign Ministry•United Nations•HTS•Syria
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal recognition of Taliban • 25%
Continued non-recognition • 25%
Conditional recognition • 25%
Other diplomatic approach • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian government or the State Duma
Story
Putin Signs Law Allowing Delisting of Terrorist Organizations, Paving Way for Taliban and HTS Recognition by State Duma
Dec 28, 2024, 09:09 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law that permits the temporary suspension of bans on organizations listed as terrorist groups. This legislation enables the potential recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan, contingent upon their distancing from terrorist activities. The law was approved by the State Duma and is seen as a step towards enhancing cooperation with Kabul. The Russian Foreign Ministry has indicated that formal ties with the Taliban are unlikely without the removal of their terrorist designation, which is currently imposed due to their past actions recognized by the United Nations. Additionally, the law could also apply to other groups, such as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria.
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Strengthened ties • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened ties • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration of relations • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
General acceptance • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
Other • 25%
Removed from list • 25%
Remain on list • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Turkey • 25%
None of the above • 25%
Pakistan • 25%
China • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Low engagement • 25%
High engagement • 25%
Moderate engagement • 25%
Legislation fully enacted • 25%
Legislation rejected • 25%
Legislation partially enacted • 25%
Legislation stalled • 25%