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What will be the impact on Russia-West relations after recognizing the Taliban by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Deterioration of relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Diplomatic actions or statements from Western countries and international relations reports
Story
Russia Moves to Recognize Taliban, Removes from Banned List
Dec 10, 2024, 02:36 PM
The Russian State Duma has taken a significant step towards recognizing the Taliban government by passing legislation in its first reading that would remove the group from Russia's list of banned organizations. This legislative move comes amidst Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's defense of Moscow's ties with the Taliban, stating that the group is not designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations. The bill, if fully enacted, would enable Russian courts to temporarily suspend terrorism designations, potentially paving the way for formal recognition of the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan.
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Strengthened ties • 25%
Weakened ties • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continued non-recognition • 25%
Conditional recognition • 25%
Formal recognition of Taliban • 25%
Other diplomatic approach • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Pakistan • 25%
China • 25%
None of the above • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Moderate engagement • 25%
Low engagement • 25%
No engagement • 25%
High engagement • 25%
NATO • 25%
European Union • 25%
None of the above • 25%
UN • 25%
Remain on list • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Other • 25%
Removed from list • 25%