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Will National Rally win more than 37% of the vote?
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France•National Rally•Marine Le Pen•Jordan Bardella•New Popular Front•Emmanuel Macron•Macron•Le Pen•Ukraine
Resolution / Starting Odds
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Official election results published by the French government
Story
France's Far-Right Leads Polls with 37% Ahead of July 7 Snap Election
Jun 28, 2024, 05:48 AM
France is on the brink of a significant political shift as the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, is poised to win the first round of the snap parliamentary elections on July 7. Recent polls indicate that the National Rally could secure 37% of the popular vote, surpassing both the left-wing New Popular Front, projected to receive 28%, and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc, which is expected to garner 20%. This high-stakes election, called unexpectedly by Macron, has raised concerns about the future of his reform projects and his ability to govern. Le Pen has also challenged Macron's role as commander-in-chief, stating that the prime minister would control military decisions, potentially limiting France's support for Ukraine. The New Popular Front is seen winning 180-210 seats, while Macron's camp is projected to secure 75-110 seats. The outcome of this election could lead to a far-right government in France for the first time, significantly impacting both domestic and international policies.
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