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How many seats will National Rally win in the 2024 parliamentary elections?
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France•National Rally•RN•Marine Le Pen•Elabe•Emmanuel Macron•Ensemble•Hungary•Viktor Orbán•European Parliament
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 200 • 25%
200-214 • 25%
215-230 • 25%
More than 230 • 25%
Official election results, verified news reports
Story
France Braces for Historic Far-Right Surge: National Rally Projected to Win 200-230 Seats
Jul 6, 2024, 10:00 AM
France is poised for a significant political shift as the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, is projected to win the most seats in Sunday's parliamentary elections. Despite falling short of an absolute majority, RN's rise marks a historic moment for the far-right in France. Polls, including those from OpinionWay-LesEchos and Elabe, indicate RN could secure between 200-230 seats, while the centrist and leftist alliances struggle to form a workable majority. Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance, Ensemble, is expected to lose a substantial number of seats, potentially paralyzing the government. The election outcome could lead to political instability and possible new elections in Q3 2025. The RN's potential collaboration with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in the European Parliament adds another layer of complexity to the evolving political landscape. This second round of voting is seen as a historic triumph for the far-right.
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