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Will major economies impose economic sanctions against China due to the 2024 military drills?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
US imposes new sanctions • 25%
EU imposes new sanctions • 25%
Japan imposes new sanctions • 25%
No new sanctions imposed • 25%
Official government announcements or credible international economic news sources
Story
China Launches 'Joint Sword-2024A' Drills Around Taiwan, Mobilizes 35 Aircraft
May 23, 2024, 11:19 AM
China has launched its largest military drills in a year around Taiwan, named 'Joint Sword-2024A', in response to what it calls 'separatist acts' by Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te. The exercises, which began on May 23 and will last for two days, involve the army, navy, air force, and rocket force. They include joint maritime and air combat patrols, mock strikes, and the deployment of dozens of warplanes and naval vessels. Specific areas of focus include the islands of Kinmen and Dongyin. Taiwan's military has mobilized its forces and expressed confidence in its ability to protect the island. Notably, 35 Chinese aircraft, including 28 that crossed the median line, have been reported. The drills are intended as a strong punishment for Taiwan's push for independence and a warning to external forces. Beijing's state media emphasized that the exercises are a response to the inauguration of President Lai and his separatist stance.
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Similar markets
USA imposes new sanctions • 25%
EU imposes new sanctions • 25%
No new sanctions from major economies • 25%
Sanctions from other major economies • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Condemnation from more than 5 countries • 25%
Formal sanctions against China • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased military aid to Taiwan from allies • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New sanctions by the USA • 33%
New sanctions by the EU • 33%
No new sanctions • 34%
Significant economic sanctions imposed by multiple countries • 33%
Minor or no new economic sanctions • 33%
Economic boost due to increased military spending • 34%
Condemnation by multiple countries • 33%
Support from allies of China • 33%
No significant international response • 34%
Condemnation from multiple countries • 33%
Support from any major country • 33%
No significant international reaction • 34%