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Will Israeli forces retaliate within three months following the death announcement?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Retaliation occurs • 50%
No retaliation • 50%
News reports and official military statements
Story
Hamas Claims 51-Year-Old British-Israeli Hostage Killed by Israeli Airstrike
May 12, 2024, 02:25 AM
Hamas, through their military wing Al-Qassam Brigades and spokesman Abu Obaida, announced the death of Nadav Popplewell, a 51-year-old British-Israeli hostage, claiming he died from wounds sustained in an Israeli airstrike over a month ago. The announcement came shortly after Hamas released a video purportedly showing Popplewell alive, which raised hopes among his family and international observers. The UK Foreign Office is actively seeking more information regarding the claim. Hamas did not provide proof of Popplewell's death in their statements.
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Increased military operations • 33%
Diplomatic measures • 33%
No significant action • 33%
Increased airstrikes • 33%
Ground operations • 33%
No significant military action • 34%
Increased airstrikes • 25%
Ground operations in Gaza • 25%
Cyber operations against Hamas • 25%
No further action • 25%