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Will Israel retaliate within 30 days following the hostage death announcement?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from major international defense and security news sources
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Hamas Announces Death of 51-Year-Old British-Israeli Hostage Nadav Popplewell
May 11, 2024, 01:06 PM
Hamas has announced the death of Nadav Popplewell, a 51-year-old British-Israeli hostage, claiming he succumbed to wounds from an Israeli airstrike over a month ago. This statement, made by Al-Qassam Brigades spokesman Abu Obaida, comes shortly after Hamas released a video showing Popplewell alive, which they claimed was proof of life. The situation has escalated tensions, with Hamas stating that the possibility of a truce in Gaza is entirely dependent on Israel's actions. The armed wing of Hamas, the Qassam Brigades, has been vocal about the incident, emphasizing the critical condition of the hostage leading to his death.
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Retaliation occurs • 50%
No retaliation • 50%
Policy Change Announced • 50%
No Policy Change Announced • 50%
Increased airstrikes • 33%
Ground operations • 33%
No significant military action • 34%
Increased sanctions on Hamas • 33%
Condemnatory statements • 33%
No significant response • 34%
Airstrikes • 25%
Ground offensive • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
No immediate military action • 25%
Condemnation of Hamas • 33%
Condemnation of IDF actions • 33%
No specific condemnation • 33%
Increased Military Operations • 33%
Status Quo Maintained • 33%
Decreased Military Operations • 33%
