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Will Hurricane Rafael cause a significant oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico by end of 2024?
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Rafael•Caribbean•Cuba•Jamaica•Cayman Islands•National Hurricane Center•Cuban•Artemisa•Gulf of Mexico
Resolution / Starting Odds
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Reports from environmental agencies and news outlets
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Category 3 Hurricane Rafael Hits Cuba, Knocks Out Power Grid
Nov 6, 2024, 01:38 PM
Hurricane Rafael rapidly intensified from a tropical storm in the Caribbean to a powerful Category 3 hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday evening. After passing near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as a Category 1 and then Category 2 hurricane, Rafael underwent rapid intensification, reaching Category 3 status with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. The National Hurricane Center warned that Rafael was expected to bring life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding to portions of western Cuba. The hurricane made landfall in the Cuban province of Artemisa, causing widespread power outages as the storm knocked out the country's power grid. Rafael is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico after crossing Cuba.
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Less than 50 mph • 25%
50-70 mph • 25%
71-90 mph • 25%
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Before June 2025 • 25%
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No major disruption by end of 2025 • 25%