National Hurricane Center reports and updates

Tropical Storm Rafael Strengthens; Rapid Intensification Expected as Florida Keys Under Tropical Storm Watch

Nov 4, 2024, 02:51 PM

A tropical weather system designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen has developed in the south-central Caribbean Sea and has strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael, the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the first use of the name since 2012. As of Monday afternoon, Rafael was located approximately 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, moving northward at 8 mph. Hurricane Hunters observed winds of 40-45 knots and noted an eyewall forming, indicating rapid intensification is likely. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Jamaica, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin late Monday night. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for parts of western Cuba. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane, potentially reaching maximum sustained winds of 100 mph by Wednesday as it approaches western Cuba. There is potential for Rafael to become a major hurricane (Category 3) given the favorable conditions. After crossing Cuba, Rafael is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, where environmental conditions, including increased wind shear, dry air, and cooler water temperatures, are anticipated to weaken the storm as it moves northwest. Despite the expected weakening, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast are advised to monitor the storm's progress, as potential impacts, including increased rain chances and gusty winds, could occur later in the week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Middle and Lower Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible through Wednesday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Rafael will not significantly impact South Florida, although breezy to windy conditions are expected. Key messages from the National Hurricane Center emphasize the potential for heavy rainfall across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, with possible mudslides due to accumulations of 3 to 6 inches or more of rain.