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Will HTS gain official recognition from the U.S. or any UN member by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official recognition announcements from the U.S. government or UN member states
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U.S. State Department's Barbara Leaf Asserts Iran Will Have No Role in Syria's Future After Meeting with HTS Leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani
Dec 21, 2024, 07:03 AM
The U.S. State Department has declared that Iran will have no role in Syria's future, a statement made following a meeting with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Barbara Leaf, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, emphasized that Iran's involvement in Syria has been destructive and exploitative. The U.S. has conditioned its support for the new Syrian government on the stipulation that it must not grant any role to Iran. This position reflects a broader U.S. strategy to reshape the political landscape in Syria post-civil war, excluding Iranian influence. The announcement comes amid ongoing discussions regarding the future governance of Syria and the role of various regional powers.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Recognized as non-terrorist • 25%
Remains on terrorist lists • 25%
Under review • 25%
No official stance • 25%
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Recognized by Russia • 25%
Recognized by China • 25%
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Recognized by some countries • 25%
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Recognition status unclear • 25%