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Market
Will HTS be involved in a major international incident by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies or official government statements
Story
US Cancels $10 Million Bounty on HTS Leader Ahmad al-Sharaa
Dec 20, 2024, 07:00 PM
The United States has cancelled the $10 million bounty under the Rewards for Justice program on Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the new de facto leader of Syria. US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf announced the decision after meeting with al-Sharaa in Damascus. Leaf stated that al-Sharaa pledged not to allow terrorist groups to operate in Syria and threaten the US or neighboring countries.
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Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
No major response • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
Recognized as legitimate government • 25%
Condemned and sanctioned • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other stance • 25%
Other statement • 25%
No official stance change • 25%
Reaffirm previous stance • 25%
Denounce terrorism • 25%
No official response • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Leadership change due to external pressure • 25%
Leadership change due to assassination • 25%
Leadership change due to internal decision • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%