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Market
Will ByteDance launch a new app in the U.S. by September 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from ByteDance or media coverage
Story
TikTok Officially Shuts Down in U.S. After Government Ban
Jan 19, 2025, 03:39 AM
On January 19, 2025, TikTok, the popular social media platform, officially shut down its operations in the United States following a government ban.
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No new app is launched • 25%
Yes, a new app is launched • 25%
Existing app rebranded • 25%
Other development • 25%
CapCut • 25%
Lemon8 • 25%
None • 25%
Marvel Snap • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Wins legal challenge and resumes operations • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Remains banned throughout 2025 • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No further bans • 25%
Ban on some ByteDance apps • 25%
Ban on all ByteDance apps • 25%