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Will an agreement on Ukraine with security guarantees be reached by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the White House or Kremlin
Story
Trump and Putin Set to Meet, Discuss Ukraine Agreement with Security Guarantees
Jan 12, 2025, 02:57 PM
Preparations are underway for a meeting between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as announced by Trump's incoming National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz. Waltz also indicated that a phone call between the two leaders is expected in the coming days or weeks. Trump believes that an agreement on Ukraine is impossible without dialogue with Russia and plans to address this issue in the coming months. The White House has stated that any agreement on Ukraine should include security guarantees to prevent a repeat of the conflict.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Full security guarantees provided • 25%
Partial security guarantees provided • 25%
No security guarantees provided • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
U.S. only • 25%
NATO • 25%
None • 25%
EU only • 25%
Military support • 25%
No guarantees • 25%
Economic aid • 25%
Diplomatic assurances • 25%