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Will a specific disease be identified to justify border closure under Title 42 by May 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Statements or documents released by the Trump administration or U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Story
Trump Advisers Seek Disease to Justify U.S.-Mexico Border Closure Using Title 42, Led by Stephen Miller
Jan 9, 2025, 10:43 PM
President-elect Donald J. Trump's advisers are reportedly searching for a disease to justify closing the U.S.-Mexico border. They have spent months considering various diseases, including tuberculosis and other respiratory illnesses, to build their case for reimplementing Title 42, a public health measure previously used during the COVID-19 pandemic to restrict migrant entry. The Trump team has been consulting with Border Patrol officials to identify illnesses among migrants at the border. This effort is part of a broader plan to crack down on immigration, led by Stephen Miller, Trump's pick for deputy chief of staff.
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Similar markets
Influenza • 25%
Tuberculosis • 25%
Other • 25%
COVID-19 • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Health concerns • 25%
Other • 25%
Economic reasons • 25%
National security • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
Upheld • 25%
Struck down • 25%
Partially upheld • 25%
Combination of Malaria and Respiratory Infection • 25%
Malaria • 25%
New Pathogen • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
