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Who will win Taiwan's 2024 presidential election amid tensions with China?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
DPP Candidate Wins • 25%
KMT Candidate Wins • 25%
Independent Candidate Wins • 25%
Other Party Candidate Wins • 25%
Official election results from Taiwan's Central Election Commission
Story
China Condemns U.S. $567 Million Military Aid to Taiwan, Calls Out 'Double-Faced' Approach
Oct 9, 2024, 06:36 AM
The United States has approved military aid worth approximately $567 million to Taiwan, a move that has been strongly condemned by China. China's defense ministry has urged the U.S. to cease its 'double-faced' approach and to stop arming Taiwan. The Chinese government has lodged stern representations with the U.S. and emphasized that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will enhance combat preparedness to counter 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities. China reiterates that Taiwan is a part of China and urges other countries to respect the one-China principle. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan is engaging in separatist activities. The condemnation was reiterated on Wednesday.
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Pro-Independence Candidate Wins • 25%
Pro-Status Quo Candidate Wins • 25%
Pro-China Candidate Wins • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Resignation of current leadership • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Other political changes • 25%
Pro-Independence Candidate Wins • 25%
Pro-Beijing Candidate Wins • 25%
Moderate Candidate Wins • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict or skirmish • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Decreased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful dialogue initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Democratic Progressive Party • 25%
Kuomintang • 25%
Taiwan People's Party • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
De-escalation and dialogue initiated • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Formal intervention by a third party • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Commitment to diplomatic talks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Strengthened bilateral ties • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased military cooperation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
Taiwan • 25%
None by end of 2024 • 25%