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Market
Who will lead RN after the political crisis over the 2025 budget by June 30, 2025?
2
Michel Barnier•Social Security•National Assembly•Rassemblement National•RN•Marine Le Pen•Barnier•Jordan Bardella
Resolution / Starting Odds
Marine Le Pen remains leader • 25%
Jordan Bardella becomes leader • 25%
Another RN member becomes leader • 25%
Leadership remains undecided • 25%
Official announcements from the RN party or major news outlets
Story
French PM Barnier to Use Article 49.3 for Social Security Budget, RN Threatens Censure
Dec 2, 2024, 07:55 AM
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is set to use special constitutional powers, known as Article 49.3, to pass the 2025 Social Security budget without a vote in the National Assembly, risking a no-confidence vote. This decision comes after the Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, threatened to vote for a censure motion unless Barnier made significant concessions. The government's move to bypass parliamentary vote has intensified political tensions, with RN leader Jordan Bardella stating that his party will vote for censure 'unless a last-minute miracle occurs.' Despite Barnier's efforts to negotiate, including discussions on the indexation of pensions, the RN has maintained its stance, pushing the government towards a potential political crisis.
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