Loading...
Market
What changes will be made to the 2025 Social Security budget by March 31, 2025?
2
Michel Barnier•Social Security•National Assembly•Rassemblement National•RN•Marine Le Pen•Barnier•Jordan Bardella
Resolution / Starting Odds
No changes made • 25%
Pension indexation revised • 25%
Other budgetary changes • 25%
Multiple changes including pensions • 25%
Official government publications or major news outlets reporting changes
Story
French PM Barnier to Use Article 49.3 for Social Security Budget, RN Threatens Censure
Dec 2, 2024, 07:55 AM
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is set to use special constitutional powers, known as Article 49.3, to pass the 2025 Social Security budget without a vote in the National Assembly, risking a no-confidence vote. This decision comes after the Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, threatened to vote for a censure motion unless Barnier made significant concessions. The government's move to bypass parliamentary vote has intensified political tensions, with RN leader Jordan Bardella stating that his party will vote for censure 'unless a last-minute miracle occurs.' Despite Barnier's efforts to negotiate, including discussions on the indexation of pensions, the RN has maintained its stance, pushing the government towards a potential political crisis.
View original story
Similar markets
Significant increase in deficit • 25%
Decrease in deficit • 25%
No significant impact on deficit • 25%
Moderate increase in deficit • 25%
Increase by more than 10% • 25%
Decrease from fiscal 2025 • 25%
Increase by less than 5% • 25%
Increase by 5% to 10% • 25%
Increase 1% to 3% • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No Change • 25%
Increase more than 3% • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Improved solvency • 25%
No change • 25%
Worsened solvency • 25%
Uncertain impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Unchanged support • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant impact • 34%
Significant positive impact • 33%
Moderate positive impact • 33%
Less than $500 • 25%
More than $2000 • 25%
$1000 to $2000 • 25%
$500 to $1000 • 25%