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Who will be identified as responsible if the splashes near the vessel off Yemen's Hodeidah port are determined to be an attack by Dec 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Houthi movement • 25%
Pirates • 25%
Other state actor • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Official statements from UKMTO or other relevant maritime authorities
Story
Vessel Reports Four Splashes Near Yemen's Hodeidah; Crew Safe, Says UKMTO
Oct 1, 2024, 04:10 AM
On October 1, 2024, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency reported Incident 124 involving a vessel 64 nautical miles northwest of Yemen's Hodeidah port. The vessel reported four splashes in close proximity to it. Authorities are investigating the incident. The crew are safe, and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call. There have been concerns over maritime security in the region, with reports of attacks on civilian vessels by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement since November.
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State Actor • 25%
Non-State Actor • 25%
Pirate Group • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
United States • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Political Conflict • 25%
Economic Motives • 25%
Terrorism • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Responsible Party Identified • 25%
No Responsible Party Identified • 25%
Investigation Inconclusive • 25%
Investigation Ongoing • 25%
Houthi rebels • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other non-state actors • 25%
Unclear/Disputed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United Kingdom • 25%
Yemen • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United States • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
Other • 25%
Sudanese Armed Forces • 25%
RSF (Rapid Support Forces) • 25%
Other Sudanese Faction • 25%
No Clear Responsibility • 25%
Houthi control • 25%
Yemeni government control • 25%
International control • 25%
Other • 25%