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Who will be held responsible for the MV Sounion attack by December 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Houthi rebels • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other non-state actors • 25%
Unclear/Disputed • 25%
Official investigations, international statements, news reports
Story
Houthi Attack on MV Sounion Raises Red Sea Oil Spill Fears; Tanker Holds 150,000 Tonnes
Aug 29, 2024, 04:37 PM
A Greek-flagged oil tanker, the MV Sounion, carrying 150,000 tonnes of crude oil, has been attacked by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, sparking a fire and raising concerns about a potential environmental disaster. The tanker, carrying approximately one million barrels of crude oil, was targeted with projectiles and explosives, leading to ongoing fires since August 23. Conflicting reports have emerged regarding an oil spill, with the EU mission Aspides in the Red Sea stating no spill has occurred, while satellite imagery suggests a potential spill. The US Pentagon has warned of a possible spill four times the size of the Exxon Valdez disaster. Efforts are underway to salvage the vessel, with Greece and Saudi Arabia coordinating measures to prevent further environmental damage.
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Houthi rebels • 25%
Pirates • 25%
State actor • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Houthi rebels • 25%
Iran • 25%
Another group • 25%
No claim • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
ISIS • 25%
Unknown group • 25%
Other • 25%
Houthi Rebels • 25%
Iran • 25%
Another Yemeni Faction • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Domestic Group • 25%
Foreign Group • 25%
No Party Identified • 25%
Other • 25%
Less than $10 million • 25%
$10 million to $50 million • 25%
$50 million to $100 million • 25%
More than $100 million • 25%
Lone wolf attacker • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Islamic Jihad • 25%
Other group • 25%
Ukrainian government • 25%
Individual actors • 25%
Russian pilot • 25%
Other • 25%
Yacht manufacturer • 25%
Yacht operator • 25%
No one • 25%
Other • 25%
The three accused men • 25%
Additional accomplices • 25%
No one held responsible • 25%
Case still ongoing • 25%