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Which major European country will formally recognize HTS by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Germany formally recognizes HTS • 25%
France formally recognizes HTS • 25%
UK formally recognizes HTS • 25%
No formal recognition by any • 25%
Official statements from European governments or international organizations
Story
US Diplomat to Hold First Formal Talks with HTS Leader in Damascus
Dec 19, 2024, 07:36 PM
The United States is set to reengage diplomatically with Syria as Barbara Leaf, the State Department's top diplomat for the Middle East, plans to lead a delegation to Damascus in the coming days. This visit could mark the first formal U.S. contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Leaf is expected to meet with HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, who has a $10 million U.S. bounty on him. Discussions are anticipated to focus on Syria's political transition, addressing security concerns, and possibly reevaluating HTS's designation as a terrorist organization. European countries, such as Germany, have recently initiated dialogue with HTS representatives following a recent offensive by the group, signaling a shift in international relations with HTS.
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Similar markets
None • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
EU maintains current stance • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
EU removes HTS from terrorist list • 25%
EU imposes sanctions on Turkey • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Russia • 25%
Recognition by major powers (e.g., US, UK) • 25%
UN recognition • 25%
No recognition • 25%
EU recognition • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
United States • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
