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Which country will be involved in the next confirmed drone violation of airspace in Europe by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Official government statements and news reports
Story
Poland Retracts Claim of Iranian Shahed Drone Violation with 99% Certainty
Sep 5, 2024, 03:39 PM
Poland has retracted its earlier claims that a drone violated its airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine in August. After a 10-day search and analysis, the Polish military announced that there is a 99% certainty that no object entered Polish airspace on August 26. The search, which involved mounted units, helicopters, UAVs, and hunters, was called off on September 4. General Maciej Klisz, the operational commander of the Polish Armed Forces, confirmed that the drone, initially reported to be an Iranian-origin Shahed, most likely did not enter Polish airspace.
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Poland • 25%
Romania • 25%
Estonia • 25%
Other • 25%
Belarus • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Poland • 25%
Other • 25%
Poland • 25%
Moldova • 25%
Romania • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
United States • 25%
NATO member country • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Other • 25%
No country accused • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Poland • 25%
Estonia • 25%
Lithuania • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
Belarus • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
No attack • 25%
Russia • 33%
Belarus • 33%
Both Russia and Belarus • 33%
Ukraine • 25%
Internal Russian group • 25%
NATO member country • 25%
Other • 25%