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What will be the outcome of the next investigation into a drone violation in Europe by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed violation • 25%
No violation • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Official investigation reports and government announcements
Story
Poland Retracts Claim of Iranian Shahed Drone Violation with 99% Certainty
Sep 5, 2024, 03:39 PM
Poland has retracted its earlier claims that a drone violated its airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine in August. After a 10-day search and analysis, the Polish military announced that there is a 99% certainty that no object entered Polish airspace on August 26. The search, which involved mounted units, helicopters, UAVs, and hunters, was called off on September 4. General Maciej Klisz, the operational commander of the Polish Armed Forces, confirmed that the drone, initially reported to be an Iranian-origin Shahed, most likely did not enter Polish airspace.
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Accidental entry from Belarus • 25%
Deliberate entry from Belarus • 25%
Accidental entry from another country • 25%
Deliberate entry from another country • 25%
Accidental straying • 25%
Intentional incursion • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Russian origin confirmed • 25%
Origin confirmed but not Russian • 25%
Origin remains unidentified • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Espionage • 25%
Commercial • 25%
Recreational • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Drone was on a reconnaissance mission • 25%
Drone was armed and posed a threat • 25%
Drone was mistakenly identified • 25%
Other • 25%
No drones involved • 25%
Drones involved by private entities • 25%
Drones involved by government agencies • 25%
Inconclusive investigation • 25%
Foreign government involvement • 25%
Domestic group or individual • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Other • 25%
Drone confirmed to be Russian • 25%
Drone confirmed to be non-Russian • 25%
No conclusive evidence found • 25%
Investigation still ongoing • 25%
Identified responsible parties • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
Prosecution • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
No further action • 25%
Russian agents identified • 25%
Non-state actors identified • 25%
No conclusive identification • 25%
Other state actors identified • 25%
Confirmed Russian involvement • 25%
Confirmed non-Russian involvement • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Identified and resolved • 25%
Identified but unresolved • 25%
Not identified • 25%
No conclusion • 25%