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Which countries will be involved in negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S., EU, Russia, China • 25%
U.S., EU only • 25%
U.S., Russia, China only • 25%
Other combinations • 25%
Official announcements from involved countries or international bodies
Story
Iran's Uranium Enrichment Capacity Surges Amid U.S. Intelligence Warning
Dec 6, 2024, 03:04 PM
Iran has significantly ramped up its uranium enrichment activities, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting a dramatic increase in the production of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% needed for weapons-grade material. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA's director-general, stated that Iran's enrichment capacity could increase by seven to eight times or even more from the previous rate of 5-7 kg per month. This escalation comes in response to diplomatic and military pressures, including attacks and sanctions, as well as an intelligence assessment from the U.S. suggesting Iran could produce enough material for 12 nuclear bombs if it further enriches its current uranium stockpiles. Iran has also begun feeding uranium enriched to up to 20% into two interconnected cascades at Fordow, aiming to raise its purity to 60%.
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Other combination • 25%
US, EU, Russia, China • 25%
US, EU only • 25%
Russia, China only • 25%
Other • 25%
UK • 25%
Germany • 25%
France • 25%
Russia • 25%
European Union • 25%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
European Union • 25%
Russia • 25%
Russia • 25%
United States • 25%
Germany • 25%
China • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%