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What will be the outcome of potential military action against Iran's nuclear facilities by July 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No military action • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
Full-scale military intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
News reports from credible international news agencies
Story
Iran's Uranium Enrichment Capacity Surges Amid U.S. Intelligence Warning
Dec 6, 2024, 03:04 PM
Iran has significantly ramped up its uranium enrichment activities, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting a dramatic increase in the production of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% needed for weapons-grade material. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA's director-general, stated that Iran's enrichment capacity could increase by seven to eight times or even more from the previous rate of 5-7 kg per month. This escalation comes in response to diplomatic and military pressures, including attacks and sanctions, as well as an intelligence assessment from the U.S. suggesting Iran could produce enough material for 12 nuclear bombs if it further enriches its current uranium stockpiles. Iran has also begun feeding uranium enriched to up to 20% into two interconnected cascades at Fordow, aiming to raise its purity to 60%.
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Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Successful strikes with no escalation • 25%
Strikes lead to regional escalation • 25%
Strikes are called off • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Iran's nuclear facilities significantly damaged • 25%
Iran's nuclear facilities slightly damaged • 25%
Iran's nuclear facilities not damaged • 25%
No airstrikes conducted • 25%
Successful strike with minimal fallout • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Decisive victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Decisive victory for Iran • 25%
Ongoing conflict without resolution • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Limited skirmish • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant financial damage to Iran • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Success with minimal international backlash • 25%
Success with significant international backlash • 25%
Failure with minimal international backlash • 25%
Failure with significant international backlash • 25%
Strikes conducted • 25%
Strikes planned but not executed • 25%
No strikes planned • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic impacts • 25%
No significant change • 25%