Loading...
Market
When will the next significant public protest related to Hong Kong's national security law occur?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
By October 2024 • 25%
By November 2024 • 25%
By December 2024 • 25%
No significant protest • 25%
News reports from reputable sources such as BBC, Reuters, or South China Morning Post
Story
First Conviction Under Hong Kong's New Security Law for Wearing 'Seditious' T-Shirt on Monday
Sep 16, 2024, 03:30 AM
A Hong Kong resident has become the first person convicted under the city's new national security law after pleading guilty to sedition. The individual was charged for wearing a T-shirt with a protest slogan. The conviction, which occurred on Monday, marks a significant development in the enforcement of the controversial legislation, which has been criticized for curbing freedoms in the region.
View original story
Similar markets
Within 3 months • 25%
Within 6 months • 25%
Within 12 months • 25%
No major protest • 25%
New arrests • 25%
New charges • 25%
Sentencing of currently charged individuals • 25%
Appeals • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No demonstrations • 25%
Small-scale demonstrations • 25%
Medium-scale demonstrations • 25%
Large-scale demonstrations • 25%
Pro-democracy reforms • 25%
Opposition to security laws • 25%
Economic issues • 25%
Other • 25%
Convictions upheld • 25%
Convictions overturned • 25%
Partial overturn • 25%
Other • 25%
Large-scale protests occur • 25%
Small-scale protests occur • 25%
No protests occur • 25%
Protests suppressed by authorities • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Joshua Wong • 25%
Agnes Chow • 25%
Nathan Law • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%