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Market
When will the next major political crisis in France occur?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Within 6 months • 25%
Within 1 year • 25%
Within 2 years • 25%
No change • 25%
Official announcements from the French government or major news outlets
Story
Macron Names François Bayrou as France's Fourth Prime Minister This Year After Barnier's Ouster
Dec 13, 2024, 01:59 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed centrist ally François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister of France. The appointment follows the ousting of previous Prime Minister Michel Barnier through a historic parliamentary vote of no confidence last week, marking the second major political crisis in six months. Bayrou, 73, is a veteran politician, leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party, and a long-time ally of Macron. He faces the daunting task of navigating France out of months of political crisis and assembling a stable cabinet. This is the fourth prime minister appointed by Macron in 2024, highlighting the ongoing political instability in the country. Prior to this appointment, Bayrou served as Education Minister and was a presidential candidate in 2002, 2007, and 2012.
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Similar markets
Decreased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased stability • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Form coalition with other parties • 25%
Call for early elections • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Propose new legislation • 25%
Economic crisis • 25%
Social unrest • 25%
Political opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Economic policy • 25%
Other • 25%
Social policy • 25%
Immigration policy • 25%
Minister of Interior • 25%
Minister of Economy • 25%
Other • 25%
Minister of Foreign Affairs • 25%
Government makes significant concessions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Government faces a successful motion of censure • 25%
Government survives without changes • 25%