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Market
What will be the state of Bayrou's government by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stable government • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Significant reshuffle • 25%
New Prime Minister appointed • 25%
Official government announcements or major news outlets
Story
Macron Names François Bayrou as France's Fourth Prime Minister This Year After Barnier's Ouster
Dec 13, 2024, 01:59 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed centrist ally François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister of France. The appointment follows the ousting of previous Prime Minister Michel Barnier through a historic parliamentary vote of no confidence last week, marking the second major political crisis in six months. Bayrou, 73, is a veteran politician, leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party, and a long-time ally of Macron. He faces the daunting task of navigating France out of months of political crisis and assembling a stable cabinet. This is the fourth prime minister appointed by Macron in 2024, highlighting the ongoing political instability in the country. Prior to this appointment, Bayrou served as Education Minister and was a presidential candidate in 2002, 2007, and 2012.
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Partial formation • 25%
Failure to form • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful formation • 25%
Mix of centrist and right-wing • 25%
Predominantly centrist • 25%
Broad coalition across political spectrum • 25%
Mix of centrist and left-wing • 25%
Fails to stabilize • 25%
Partially stabilizes • 25%
Successfully stabilizes • 25%
Resigns or replaced • 25%
Forms minority government • 25%
Successfully forms government • 25%
Fails to form government • 25%
Resigns before forming government • 25%
Still Prime Minister • 25%
Other role • 25%
Ousted • 25%
Resigned • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Worsening • 25%
No change • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
Forms a coalition government • 25%
Other • 25%
Fails to form a government • 25%
Successfully forms a government • 25%
Left-wing majority • 25%
Right-wing majority • 25%
Centrist majority • 25%
Mixed coalition • 25%
PS remains in opposition • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other parties join coalition • 25%
PS joins coalition • 25%