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What will be the political stability outcome in France by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and political analysis
Story
Moody's Downgrades France's Credit Rating to Aa3 from Aa2 with Stable Outlook on December 13, 2024
Dec 14, 2024, 06:52 AM
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from Aa2 to Aa3, with a stable outlook. This decision, announced on December 13, 2024, is attributed to deteriorating public finances and increasing political fragmentation within the country. The agency highlighted that the downgrade reflects concerns over France's fiscal stability and the challenges the new government, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou, will face in managing the nation's debt and deficit. The downgrade comes at a critical time, as it follows the recent appointment of Bayrou, marking a significant challenge for his administration. The rating change may also impact France's borrowing costs and investor confidence in the country's financial outlook.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Renaissance gains majority • 25%
Other party gains majority • 25%
La France Insoumise gains majority • 25%
Republicans gain majority • 25%
Fails to stabilize • 25%
Resigns or replaced • 25%
Partially stabilizes • 25%
Successfully stabilizes • 25%
Other • 25%
Les Républicains • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
National Rally • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Policy Reversed • 25%
Not Implemented • 25%
Partially Implemented • 25%
Fully Implemented • 25%
Other • 25%
Democratic Movement (MoDem) • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
Les Républicains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Barnier retains position • 25%
Vote postponed • 25%
Barnier loses position • 25%
Maintain seats • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase seats • 25%
Lose seats • 25%
Upgraded • 25%
Negative • 25%
Stable • 25%
Downgraded • 25%
