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What will the UOC-MP decide to do in response to the new law by May 20, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sever ties with the Russian Orthodox Church • 25%
Rebrand and continue operations • 25%
Relocate operations outside Ukraine • 25%
Disband entirely • 25%
Official announcements from the UOC-MP or credible news sources
Story
Ukraine Bans Russia-Linked Orthodox Church
Aug 20, 2024, 09:33 AM
The Ukrainian Parliament has passed a law banning religious organizations linked to Russia, specifically targeting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP). This decision comes amid concerns over the church's ties to the Kremlin and the Russian FSB. The law will take effect 30 days after its publication, with UOC-MP communities given nine months to sever ties with the Russian Orthodox Church. The move is seen as a significant step in reducing Russian influence within Ukraine.
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Similar markets
Sever ties with Russian Orthodox Church • 25%
Continue ties despite ban • 25%
Form a new independent church • 25%
Seek asylum in another country • 25%
Complete enforcement • 25%
Partial enforcement • 25%
No enforcement • 25%
Legal reversal • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Support the ban • 25%
Oppose the ban • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Propose alternative measures • 25%
Accept the ban • 25%
Challenge the ban legally • 25%
Cut ties with Russia • 25%
Relocate operations outside Ukraine • 25%
Support from major Western countries • 25%
Condemnation from major Western countries • 25%
Neutral stance from major Western countries • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Ban implemented • 33%
Church cuts ties with Russia • 33%
No change • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%