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What will be the situation at the Israel-Lebanon border by November 30, 2024?
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Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Hezbollah•Hassan Nasrallah•Israeli•Beirut•Lebanon•Maariv•Channel 12•Channel 13•Nasrallah•Israel
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased skirmishes • 25%
Major conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Major news outlets, official military statements
Story
IDF Reports Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah Killed in Friday's Beirut Airstrike; Hezbollah Yet to Confirm
Sep 28, 2024, 08:01 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on September 28, 2024, that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut, Lebanon. The airstrike occurred on Friday, reportedly targeting Hezbollah's underground headquarters. Israeli media outlets, including Maariv, Channel 12, and Channel 13, reported the death of Nasrallah, citing official sources. Despite these reports, Hezbollah has not yet confirmed whether Nasrallah was eliminated. The death of Nasrallah marks a significant development in the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Other outcome • 25%
Hezbollah claims another successful repulsion • 25%
Israeli Defense Forces confirm infiltration attempt • 25%
No further incidents reported • 25%
Major escalation occurs • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Israel withdraws troops • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Israel achieves significant military objectives • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
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Limited skirmishes • 25%
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No significant changes • 25%
Successful with minimal resistance • 25%
Successful with significant resistance • 25%
Unsuccessful and withdrawn • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
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Less than 10 incidents • 25%
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21 to 30 incidents • 25%
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Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
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Other • 25%
Major military victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Major military victory for Hezbollah • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with some minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated with new terms • 25%