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What will be the status of Taiwan's diplomatic office in South Africa by the end of 2024?
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South Africa•Taiwan•Pretoria•China•Foreign Ministry•Taipei•World Movement for Democracy•South African•Mongolia
Resolution / Starting Odds
Taiwan moves the office • 25%
Office forced to close • 25%
Office remains in Pretoria • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Taiwanese or South African government
Story
South Africa Orders Taiwan to Move De Facto Embassy from Pretoria by End of October
Oct 18, 2024, 05:03 AM
South Africa has ordered Taiwan to move its representative office, described as a de facto embassy, out of the capital, Pretoria, by the end of October. The directive, described as 'non-negotiable,' was communicated via an email on October 7. If Taiwan fails to comply, South Africa may force the closure of the office. The decision is reportedly influenced by pressure from China, according to a Foreign Ministry official in Taipei. This move comes just a month before South Africa is set to host the World Movement for Democracy, raising concerns about the influence of China on South African foreign policy. Taiwan also mentioned being snubbed by Mongolia under similar pressure from China.
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Similar markets
Relocated successfully • 25%
Closed by South Africa • 25%
Negotiated extension • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Complies with relocation • 25%
Seeks diplomatic negotiation • 25%
Refuses to relocate • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Maintains ties with Taiwan only • 25%
Establishes ties with China only • 25%
Maintains ties with both • 25%
Severs ties with both • 25%
Successful dialogue initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%