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How many countries will alter diplomatic relations with Taiwan due to China's influence by the end of 2024?
2
South Africa•Taiwan•Pretoria•China•Foreign Ministry•Taipei•World Movement for Democracy•South African•Mongolia
Resolution / Starting Odds
1-2 countries • 25%
3-4 countries • 25%
5 or more countries • 25%
No countries • 25%
International news reports and official statements from affected countries
Story
South Africa Orders Taiwan to Move De Facto Embassy from Pretoria by End of October
Oct 18, 2024, 05:03 AM
South Africa has ordered Taiwan to move its representative office, described as a de facto embassy, out of the capital, Pretoria, by the end of October. The directive, described as 'non-negotiable,' was communicated via an email on October 7. If Taiwan fails to comply, South Africa may force the closure of the office. The decision is reportedly influenced by pressure from China, according to a Foreign Ministry official in Taipei. This move comes just a month before South Africa is set to host the World Movement for Democracy, raising concerns about the influence of China on South African foreign policy. Taiwan also mentioned being snubbed by Mongolia under similar pressure from China.
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Strengthened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful dialogue initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
None • 25%
1-2 countries • 25%
3-5 countries • 25%
More than 5 countries • 25%
Latin American country • 25%
European country • 25%
Asian country • 25%
No country expels a Chinese diplomat • 25%
Russia • 25%
North Korea • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Maintains ties with Taiwan only • 25%
Establishes ties with China only • 25%
Maintains ties with both • 25%
Severs ties with both • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict or skirmish • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
More than 10 countries change stance • 25%
5-10 countries change stance • 25%
1-4 countries change stance • 25%
No countries change stance • 25%
United States • 25%
Japan • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
European Union • 25%
Japan • 25%
No sanctions • 25%
Only Colombia • 25%
Colombia and 1 other country • 25%
Colombia and 2 other countries • 25%
Colombia and more than 2 other countries • 25%