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What will be the outcome of François Bayrou's attempt to form a new government by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successfully forms a government • 25%
Fails to form a government • 25%
Forms a coalition government • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcement from the French government or reputable news sources such as Le Monde or BBC
Story
Macron Names François Bayrou Prime Minister Following Government Collapse
Dec 13, 2024, 11:51 AM
On December 13, 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed 73-year-old centrist politician François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister of France. Bayrou, the mayor of Pau and leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem), replaces Michel Barnier, who resigned after a no-confidence vote by far-right and leftist lawmakers that toppled the government. Bayrou is tasked with forming a new government and drafting a new budget for 2025, aiming to stabilize the political landscape and secure support for the government's agenda.
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Resigns before forming government • 25%
Successfully forms government • 25%
Forms minority government • 25%
Fails to form government • 25%
Successful formation • 25%
Other • 25%
Failure to form • 25%
Partial formation • 25%
Resigns or replaced • 25%
Successfully stabilizes • 25%
Fails to stabilize • 25%
Partially stabilizes • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Successful coalition formed • 25%
Partial agreements reached • 25%
Consultations lead to political instability • 25%
Broad coalition across political spectrum • 25%
Mix of centrist and right-wing • 25%
Mix of centrist and left-wing • 25%
Predominantly centrist • 25%
New Prime Minister appointed • 25%
Significant reshuffle • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Stable government • 25%
Social unrest • 25%
Economic policy • 25%
Budget adoption • 25%
Other political issues • 25%