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What will be the size of North Korea's nuclear arsenal by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 50 warheads • 25%
50 to 100 warheads • 25%
101 to 150 warheads • 25%
More than 150 warheads • 25%
Reports from international monitoring agencies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or major news outlets
Story
Kim Jong Un Announces Plans to Exponentially Increase North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal, Ensuring Combat-Readiness: KCNA
Sep 10, 2024, 01:00 AM
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has announced plans to exponentially increase the country's nuclear arsenal, according to state media KCNA. This decision comes in response to what he describes as a 'grave threat' from a US-led nuclear-based military bloc in the region. Kim emphasized the need to prepare North Korea's nuclear capability and its readiness to use it properly at any given time, ensuring it is combat-ready. The announcement, made during a reception marking the 76th anniversary of North Korea's founding, follows the first table-top simulation drills by the US and South Korea's new nuclear deterrence group. Kim Jong Un's statements underscore North Korea's commitment to bolstering its nuclear capabilities against perceived threats from the United States and its allies.
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Less than 700 • 25%
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801 to 900 • 25%
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801 to 900 • 25%
More than 900 • 25%
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Yes • 50%
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700 • 25%
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900 • 25%
1,000 or more • 25%
Successful nuclear test • 25%
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Preparation leads to diplomatic talks • 25%
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Program dismantled • 25%