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What will be the size of China's nuclear arsenal by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
600-700 warheads • 25%
701-800 warheads • 25%
801-900 warheads • 25%
Over 900 warheads • 25%
Pentagon or other credible defense reports on China's nuclear capabilities
Story
Pentagon Report: China Expands Nuclear Arsenal to 600 Warheads, Increased from 500 and Tripled Over Four Years
Dec 18, 2024, 03:06 PM
According to a recent Pentagon report, China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, adding hundreds of new missiles and increasing its operational nuclear warheads from 500 to 600 in the past year. This military buildup is characterized by a focus on strategic counterbalance, with the Rocket Force emphasizing its mission to moderate adversaries' approaches toward China. The report highlights that China's nuclear stockpile has nearly tripled over the past four years, now totaling 600 nuclear warheads. The Pentagon's findings also include new insights into China's cognitive warfare capabilities.
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Similar markets
Less than 700 • 25%
700 to 800 • 25%
801 to 900 • 25%
More than 900 • 25%
600-700 • 25%
701-800 • 25%
801-900 • 25%
901 or more • 25%
Less than 700 • 25%
700 to 800 • 25%
801 to 900 • 25%
More than 900 • 25%
700 • 25%
800 • 25%
900 • 25%
1,000 or more • 25%
Less than 700 • 25%
700 to 799 • 25%
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900 or more • 25%
200-400 warheads • 25%
401-700 warheads • 25%
701-1000 warheads • 25%
More than 1000 warheads • 25%
Yes • 50%
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101 to 150 warheads • 25%
More than 150 warheads • 25%