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How many cross-border incidents will occur between Israel and Lebanon by October 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 10 incidents • 25%
10 to 20 incidents • 25%
21 to 30 incidents • 25%
More than 30 incidents • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and official statements from the Israeli Defense Forces
Story
IDF to Continue Fighting Hezbollah Despite Gaza Truce, Says Defense Minister Yoav Gallant
Jul 7, 2024, 03:45 PM
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will continue their military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, even if a truce is reached in the Gaza Strip. Gallant emphasized that the operations in the south and north are distinct, and a ceasefire with Hamas does not necessitate a pause in fighting with Hezbollah. He conveyed these directives during an operational assessment at the summit of Mount Hermon, instructing forces to maintain their efforts in both sectors regardless of any potential hostages deal with Hamas.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
Major conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Continued skirmishes without major escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Less than 300 • 25%
300-350 • 25%
351-400 • 25%
More than 400 • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
0 • 25%
1 • 25%
2 • 25%
3 or more • 25%
Less than 30 • 25%
30-50 • 25%
51-70 • 25%
More than 70 • 25%
None • 25%
1-2 • 25%
3-4 • 25%
5 or more • 25%
Hezbollah claims another successful repulsion • 25%
Israeli Defense Forces confirm infiltration attempt • 25%
No further incidents reported • 25%
Major escalation occurs • 25%