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What will be the result of US diplomatic efforts in the Gaza conflict led by Kamala Harris by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire with conditions • 25%
Unconditional ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the US government, Israeli government, or Hamas, and corroborated by major news outlets like CNN, BBC, or Reuters.
Story
Kamala Harris Urges Gaza Ceasefire, Highlights Innocent Palestinian Deaths and Opposes Re-Occupation
Sep 17, 2024, 06:50 PM
In recent interviews, Vice President Kamala Harris emphasized the urgent need to end the war in Gaza and reiterated her support for a two-state solution. During a CNN interview, US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar called for concrete answers and actionable steps from Harris, urging her to leverage US influence over Israel to enforce a ceasefire. Harris has stated that she is applying pressure equally to all sides and has been actively meeting with both Israeli and Arab officials. She also mentioned her support for a pause on 2000 lb bombs to Israel as leverage to force a ceasefire against Hamas. In her NABJ interview, Harris highlighted the need to prevent the re-occupation of Gaza and acknowledged the high number of innocent Palestinians killed. However, Harris has not specified any new policy changes and has been criticized for not holding Hamas fully accountable for starting the war and holding hostages.
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Successful ceasefire • 33%
Ongoing negotiations • 33%
Failure to reach agreement • 33%
Successful ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire reached, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire reached, hostages not released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages not released • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial de-escalation • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Sanctions on Hamas • 25%
Increased military aid to Israel • 25%
Initiating peace talks • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
No improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
No change • 25%
Worsening situation • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Partial de-escalation • 25%
No change • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Increase in military aid to Israel • 25%
Mediation role in ceasefire • 25%
New sanctions on Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Hamas • 25%
Increased military aid to Israel • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mediated a full agreement • 25%
Mediated a partial agreement • 25%
Provided support only • 25%
No significant involvement • 25%