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What will be the U.S.'s next major diplomatic move in the Israel-Hamas conflict by December 31, 2024?
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Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Rafah•Gaza•Hamas•Eden Yerushalmi•Carmel Gat•Alexander Lobanov•Almog Sarusi•Ori Danino•Joe Biden
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions on Hamas • 25%
Increased military aid to Israel • 25%
Initiating peace talks • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official announcements from the White House or U.S. Department of State
Story
IDF Recovers Bodies of Six Hostages, Including Hersh Goldberg-Polin, in Rafah Tunnel
Sep 1, 2024, 04:09 AM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have recovered the bodies of six hostages, including 23-year-old American-Israeli citizen Hersh Goldberg-Polin, from a tunnel in the Rafah area of Gaza. The hostages, who were kidnapped by Hamas on October 7 during a music festival, were reportedly murdered shortly before the IDF could rescue them. The other hostages identified are Eden Yerushalmi, Carmel Gat, Alexander Lobanov, Almog Sarusi, and Ori Danino. President Joe Biden expressed his devastation and outrage at the news, emphasizing that Hamas leaders will be held accountable for these crimes.
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Similar markets
Increased diplomatic pressure on Israel • 25%
Increased diplomatic pressure on Hamas • 25%
Increased humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase in military aid to Israel • 25%
Mediation role in ceasefire • 25%
New sanctions on Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased diplomatic pressure on Israel • 25%
Increased support for Israel • 25%
Mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Mediated a full agreement • 25%
Mediated a partial agreement • 25%
Provided support only • 25%
No significant involvement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military operations • 25%
Humanitarian aid initiative • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in military aid to Israel • 25%
Decrease in military aid to Israel • 25%
Humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 33%
Ongoing negotiations • 33%
Failure to reach agreement • 33%
Increased military presence • 25%
Evacuation of personnel • 25%
Sanctions on Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Mediator role • 25%
Observer role • 25%
Active participant • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Broker a ceasefire • 25%
Impose new sanctions • 25%
Provide military aid to Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Increased military aid • 25%
No significant action • 25%