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What will be the primary outcome of the interim governance plan for Gaza by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Stabilization and reduced conflict • 25%
Continued conflict with minor improvements • 25%
Complete failure and return to conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the US government, Israel, Hamas, and international news agencies
Story
Israel and Hamas Agree to Hostage Release and Interim Governance Plan for Gaza; 56% of Israelis Support Deal
Jul 10, 2024, 11:23 PM
Israel has achieved a significant breakthrough in its conflict with Hamas, leading to the first hostage release deal. Under relentless Israeli military pressure and heavy battlefield losses, Hamas has reportedly given up on the demand that Israel leaves the Gaza Strip as part of the deal to release the hostages held for nine months. Reports indicate that 56% of Israelis support a deal to release all hostages and end the war in Gaza, according to data from the Israel Democracy Institute. Additionally, a senior U.S. official confirmed that both Israel and Hamas have signaled their acceptance of an 'interim governance' plan for Gaza, which would see neither side ruling the territory. Security in Gaza would be provided by a force trained by the United States and backed by moderate Arab states, as reported by the Washington Post.
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Successfully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Indefinitely postponed • 25%
Other • 25%
United States-trained security force • 25%
Palestinian Authority • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Hamas control • 25%
Palestinian Authority control • 25%
Joint governance • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas remains in control • 25%
Palestinian Authority takes control • 25%
New governing body formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Medical Supplies • 25%
Food and Water • 25%
Shelter and Housing • 25%
Other • 25%
Economy • 25%
Education • 25%
Health • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Significant increase in aid • 25%
Moderate increase in aid • 25%
No change in aid levels • 25%
Decrease in aid levels • 25%
Resumed operations • 25%
Operations remain halted • 25%
Partial resumption • 25%
UN withdraws from Gaza • 25%
Operations continue as usual • 25%
Operations significantly reduced • 25%
Operations completely cease • 25%
New agreement modifies operations • 25%
Hamas retains control • 25%
Palestinian Authority gains control • 25%
New political entity emerges • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant reduction in terrorist activity • 25%
Increased displacement of civilians • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Other • 25%