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What will be the primary economic consequence if the debt ceiling is not addressed by September 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Recession • 25%
Inflation • 25%
Market crash • 25%
Other • 25%
Economic reports and analyses from reputable sources (e.g., Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office)
Story
Yellen Begins Extraordinary Measures as U.S. Hits Debt Limit on Trump's First Full Day
Jan 17, 2025, 10:22 PM
Outgoing US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has informed Congress that the United States will reach its statutory debt limit on January 21 and will begin implementing 'extraordinary measures,' including initiating a 'debt issuance suspension period,' to prevent a default. In a letter to Congressional leaders, Yellen referenced the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 and urged lawmakers to take urgent action to increase or suspend the debt ceiling to avoid severe economic consequences. The Treasury will commence these special accounting maneuvers on January 21, which include suspending investments in certain government employee retirement funds. These measures coincide with President Donald Trump's first full day in office. The duration of these measures is uncertain, and the 'X date'—the point when the U.S. could default without congressional action—may not be known until after the tax filing deadline.
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No significant impact • 33%
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