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What will be the political outcome in France by the end of 2025?
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France•National Rally•RN•Marine Le Pen•Elabe•Emmanuel Macron•Ensemble•Hungary•Viktor Orbán•European Parliament
Resolution / Starting Odds
Government collapse and new elections • 25%
Government remains but with significant instability • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Other significant political outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the French government, verified news reports
Story
France Braces for Historic Far-Right Surge: National Rally Projected to Win 200-230 Seats
Jul 6, 2024, 10:00 AM
France is poised for a significant political shift as the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, is projected to win the most seats in Sunday's parliamentary elections. Despite falling short of an absolute majority, RN's rise marks a historic moment for the far-right in France. Polls, including those from OpinionWay-LesEchos and Elabe, indicate RN could secure between 200-230 seats, while the centrist and leftist alliances struggle to form a workable majority. Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance, Ensemble, is expected to lose a substantial number of seats, potentially paralyzing the government. The election outcome could lead to political instability and possible new elections in Q3 2025. The RN's potential collaboration with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in the European Parliament adds another layer of complexity to the evolving political landscape. This second round of voting is seen as a historic triumph for the far-right.
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Increased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Government collapse • 25%
Republicans gain majority • 25%
La République En Marche gains majority • 25%
Hung parliament • 25%
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Rassemblement National coalition government • 25%
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Hung parliament • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
National Rally • 25%
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Renaissance party gains majority • 25%
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Gabriel Attal remains PM • 25%
New PM from Macron's party • 25%
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New elections called • 25%
Democratic Movement (MoDem) • 25%
La République En Marche! • 25%
Les Républicains • 25%
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Renaissance gains majority • 25%
La France Insoumise gains majority • 25%
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New Popular Front • 25%
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New Popular Front candidate • 25%
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