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What will be the outcome of U.S. congressional discussions on AI chip export restrictions by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Restrictions approved • 25%
Restrictions rejected • 25%
No decision • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Official congressional records or credible news reports
Story
U.S. Weighs Limiting Nvidia, AMD AI Chip Exports to Middle East Over Security Concerns
Oct 15, 2024, 07:37 AM
The United States is considering imposing caps on the export of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips from American companies, including Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), to certain countries, particularly in the Middle East and Persian Gulf regions. Biden administration officials have discussed limiting the sales on a country-specific basis by setting ceilings on export licenses, aiming to address national security concerns. The potential restrictions would limit some nations' AI capabilities. The deliberations are in early stages and remain fluid.
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Similar markets
Impose limits • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Postponed decision • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Tighten controls • 25%
Loosen controls • 25%
Maintain current controls • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
More restrictive policies • 25%
Less restrictive policies • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Resolution reached • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Impose controls on all AI chips • 25%
Impose controls only on Nvidia chips • 25%
Impose controls only on AMD chips • 25%
No export controls imposed • 25%
No change in policies • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Tensions ease • 25%
New agreements reached • 25%
Department of Commerce • 25%
Department of Defense • 25%
Department of State • 25%
Other • 25%