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What will be the resolution of U.S.-China semiconductor export controls by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No change in policies • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Tensions ease • 25%
New agreements reached • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. Department of Commerce or Chinese government
Story
China Probes Nvidia for Monopoly Violations Amid U.S. Export Controls
Dec 9, 2024, 12:14 PM
China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has launched an antitrust investigation into Nvidia Corp. over alleged violations of the country's anti-monopoly laws. The probe focuses on Nvidia's acquisition of Mellanox Technologies in 2020 and its market practices in China, where it accounts for approximately 15% of its data center revenue, equating to about $4.5 billion in the third quarter. Nvidia's shares dropped by more than 2% in pre-market trading following the announcement of the investigation. This move comes amidst escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. recently announcing new semiconductor export controls targeting China.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Retaliatory measures announced • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Impose sanctions on US companies • 25%
Increase domestic production • 25%
Seek alternative suppliers • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Major revenue decline • 25%
Minor revenue decline • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Revenue growth • 25%
Legal Action • 25%
Retaliatory Trade Measures • 25%
Increased Domestic Investment • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Implement reciprocal export restrictions • 25%
File a WTO complaint • 25%
Negotiate with the US • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Imposes unilateral restrictions • 25%
Reaches multilateral agreement • 25%
Negotiates with Japan only • 25%
Takes no action • 25%